It’s amazing ! The politics of India leaves no chance to surprise you. In Bihar, the government was once again formed and Nitish Kumar took oath as CM for the eighth time, but this whole effort to change the government gave rise to many questions and it is obvious that if there are questions, then there will be discussion. Now the question is only one, whether this distance of Nitish from BJP will affect the Lok Sabha elections 2024? Or is the BJP’s dream of 2024 heading towards breaking?
Its analysis is many but we have brought for you – Super Analysis, that too in your language.
Let us think of India’s electoral map as 3 strips. The 1st one is coastal belt- runs from West Bengal to Kerala plus Punjab and Kashmir. This region has 190 Lok Sabha seats, where last time BJP and its allies won only 42 seats but this time some gain expected in Bengal and Telangana due to strong revival of BJP in this region with three layer approach- Rashtrawad, Hindutva and Labharthi Yojana. Let us assume that the BJP could have sum up with around 50 seats in this space.
We all know that BJP’s seats come from the regions where it dominates- the north west, comprising the hindi heartland, this region has 203 Lok Sabha seats where last time BJP and its allies won 182 seats. The BJP was swept this region in both 2014 and 2019 with strong presence and to see this we can make a generous assumption here that the BJP continues to dominate this region with some marginal losses due to anti-incumbency factor and could have ended up with around 160 seats in this region.
Now to win 2024 battle, it needs another 65 seats out of 150 in the middle belt- Karnataka, Maharashtra, Bihar and Jharkhand with hill states like Assam, Tripura, Meghalaya and Manipur where the BJP may face some obstacles to repeat history of 2019- That is 130 seats victory. Lets start with Karnataka, although the BJP is getting ready with a special strategy in Karnataka but a repeat of 25 seats out of 28 looks to be difficult task. At the same time in Maharashtra, a coalition division may create electoral challenges for the BJP but just wait! Here, it is interesting to see that what would be the next step of Uddhav Thackeray and BJP-Shinde duo.
Now time to explore our last one electoral equations of Bihar. If the Nitish-Tejashwi alliance holds till the 2024, the mahagathbandhan and BJP vote share ratio come up with at least 42:38. Because a dent on Nitish Kumar image, a landslide of “Backwards vote” is not possible in Nitish Kumar favor this time and the BJP knows very well that how to grab such opportunities to turn electoral arithmetic.
So, sum up with conclusion, if we assume that the BJP does nearly as well in Jharkhand, Assam and hill states as it did last time, we are still looking at least 90 seats for the BJP which is more than required 65 seats from middle belt. So the BJP is in “Don’t worry” situation to retain it majority unless the opposition makes any charisma.
